NVDA enjoyed a fairly amazing run in a short period of time, increasing 43% from pre-split announcement to reach an intraday high of $835/share on July 7th, a period of only 30 trading days. I suspect the same could happen with NVDA, and perhaps we are already seeing this unfold a bit sooner than in the case of AAPL and TSLA. This underperformance in the months following the effective date indicates that the shares were bid up too aggressively during the few weeks following the announcement of the split, and then the shares had to find their “correct” price over the subsequent two or three months. During this three-month period, the NASDAQ 100 was up 3.1%, so both AAPL and TSLA significantly underperformed the index in the first few months following the effective date of their respective stock-splits. TSLA shares decreased from $498.32 on the effective date to $417.13 three months after the split was announced, also -16%. If we look at a three-month period, AAPL shares decreased from $128.41 on the effective date to $108.33 (-16%) on Oct 30th, which was two months later (and three months after the split was announced). However, both companies saw their share prices settle after the effective date of the split. And as with NVDA, both AAPL and TSLA significantly outperformed the NASDAQ 100 during this period.
In fact, both AAPL and TSLA increased more than NVDA by their respective record dates, and both increased further prior to their effective dates (which is July 20th for NVDA, so pending). As you can see in the table above and in spite of the reality that splits do not change book value, both AAPL and TSLA rallied hard post-split, similar to NVDA.
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